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The World Football Elo Ratings (Elo is often pronounced E-L-O despite not being an initialism) is a ranking system for men's national teams in football. The method used to rank teams is based upon the Elo rating system method but modified to take various football-specific variables into account. Elo should not be confused with the FIFA World Rankings, which is more prevalent because it is the rating system used by the international governing body of football to rank men's national teams. The ratings take into account all international "A" matches for which results could be found. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches[1]. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches should be considered provisional. The FIFA Women's World Rankings uses a simplified version of the Elo formula. The FIFA men's ranking, however, uses a non-Elo formula.
[edit] Top 60 rankingCurrent table, as of November 22, 2009, of the World Football Elo rankings, compiled by the World Football Elo Ratings web site. Each national team's FIFA World Ranking as of 20 November 2009.[2]
 [edit] Top 10 since 1970The following is a list of the national teams with the highest average Elo score from January 1, 1970 to November 1, 2009. See Strongest Football Nations by Elo Ratings for a top 50 and for tables of the Strongest teams per decade since 1910.
[edit] List of number one teamsThe following is the list of nations who have achieved the number one position on the World Football Elo Ratings in the last five years:
Complete list since 1872: see World Football Elo Ratings leaders. [edit] Ranking by days as leader since January 1, 2000
[edit] All-time highest ratingsThe following is a list of national football teams ranked by their highest Elo score ever reached.
[edit] HistoryThis system, developed by Hungarian mathematician Dr. Árpád Élő, is used by FIDE, the international chess federation, to rate chess players. In 1997 Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football and posted the results on the Internet. He was also the first maintainer of the World Football Elo Ratings web site. [edit] OverviewThe Elo system was adapted for football by adding a weighting for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result. The factors taken into consideration when calculating a team's new rating are:
The different weights of competitions in descending order are:
A large difference here is that FIFA ranks the Confederations Cup third highest while the Elo system ranks it joint second (treating Continental and World Cup qualifiers separately for the purposes of comparison, because FIFA does). These ratings take into account all international "A" matches for which results could be found. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches should be considered provisional. Match data are primarily from International Football 1872 - Present web site. [edit] Basic calculation principlesThe basic principle behind the Elo ratings is only in its simplest form, similar to that of a league, unlike the FIFA tables who effectively run their table as a normal league table, but with weightings to take into account the other factors, the Elo system has its one formula which takes into account the factors mentioned above. There is no first step as in the FIFA system where a team immediately receives points for the result, there is just one calculation in the Elo system. The ratings are based on the following formulae:
or
Where;
[edit] Status of matchThe status of the match is incorporated by the use of a weight constant. The weight is a constant regarding the "weight" or importance of a match, defined by which tournament the match is in, they are as follows;
[edit] Number of goalsThe number of goals is taken into account by use of a goal difference index. G is increased by half if a game is won by two goals, and if the game is won by three or more goals by a number decided through the appropriate calculation shown below; If the game is won by one goal
If the game is won by two goals If the game is won by three or more goals
Table of examples:
[edit] Result of matchW is the result of the game (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss). [edit] Expected result of matchWe is the expected result (win expectancy with a draw counting as 0.5) from the following formula:
where dr equals the difference in ratings plus 100 points for a team playing at home. So dr of 0 gives 0.5, of 120 gives 0.666 to the higher ranked team and 0.334 to the lower, and of 800 gives 0.99 to the higher ranked team and 0.01 to the lower. [edit] ExamplesThe same examples have been used on the FIFA World Rankings for a fair comparison. Some actual examples should help to make the methods of calculation clear. In this instance it is assumed that three teams of different strengths are involved in a small friendly tournament on neutral territory. Before the tournament the three teams have the following point totals.
Thus, team A is by some distance the highest ranked of the three: The following table shows the points allocations based on three possible outcomes of the match between the strongest team A, and the somewhat weaker team B: [edit] Example 1Team A versus Team B (Team A stronger than Team B)
[edit] Example 2Team B versus Team C (both teams approximately the same strength) When the difference in strength between the two teams is less, so also will be the difference in points allocation. The following table illustrates how the points would be divided following the same results as above, but with two roughly equally ranked teams, B and C, being involved:
Note that Team B loses more ranking points by losing to Team C than by losing to Team A. [edit] Notes
[edit] See also
[edit] External links
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