In hydrology, GLUE or Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation is a method to quantify the uncertainty of model predictions. The method has been introduced by Beven and Binley (1992). The basic idea of GLUE is that given our inability to represent exactly in a mathematical model how nature works , there will always be several different models that mimic equally well an observed natural process (such as river discharge). Such equally acceptable or behavioral models are therefore called equifinal.

[edit] References

• Beven, K.J. and Binley, A.M., 1992. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrological Processes, 6, p.279–298.
• Beven, K.J. and Freer, J., 2001a. Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems, Journal of Hydrology, 249, 11–29.
• Beven, K.J., 2006: A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. Journal of Hydrology 320, p.18–36
• Beven, K.J., 2007: Towards integrated environmental models of everywhere: uncertainty, data and modelling as a learning process. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(1), p. 460 - 467.

[edit] External links

• www.glue-uncertainty.org Lancaster University site with list of GLUE papers.

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