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French presidential election 2012
April and May 2012
	Incumbent President; Nicolas Sarkozy; UMP President-elect; TBD;

The 2012 French presidential election is the next presidential election to be held in April and May 2012 (if no candidate receives a majority of votes in the first round of voting). President Nicolas Sarkozy will be eligible to run for his second and final term during this election.

[edit] Union for a Popular Movement

[edit] Openly Interested

President Nicolas Sarkozy ^[1]^[2]

On July 2009 in front of UMP Members of parliament Sarkozy said "In the worst or at best, you still have it for seven and a half years with me!". MP Patrick Balkany and Elysée confirm that the possibility of a primary challenge is close to zero.

[edit] Hypothetical candidates

As of April 2009, no person has announced their intention to run for the UMP nomination in 2012. Incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy is serving his first term and will be eligible for re-election in 2012 barring death, incapacitation or resignation. If Sarkozy runs for re-election he will be unlikely to face opposition from within his party.

However only 29% of French voters favour the incumbent seeking a second term in 2012, 55% are opposed to Sarkozy running again.^[3].

Dominique de Villepin^[4]^[5], Former Prime Minister of France, If he take the decision to run he will very likely run as Independent or Outside of UMP.

Alain Juppé^[6]^[7]: Former Prime Minister of France, He has indicated that he would be interested in running if Sarkozy does not however he considers his chances close to zero.

Xavier Bertrand^[8]^[9]: General Secretary of the UMP and Aisne MP. He has indicated that he would be interested in running if Sarkozy does not.
Jean-François Copé^[10]^[11]: President of the UMP in the National Assembly and Seine-et-Marne MP. He has also indicated he would be interested in running if Sarkozy does not. Copé has also openly said that he is interested by running in 2017^[12].

[edit] Socialist Party

[edit] Openly Interested

President of the Regional Council of Poitou-Charentes Ségolène Royal^[13]^[14]

Doubs MP Pierre Moscovici^[15]^[16]^[17]^[18]

Essonne MP and Mayor of Évry Manuel Valls^[19]^[20]^[21]^[22]

[edit] Potential

President of the General Council of Corrèze, former First Secretary of Socialist Party and MP François Hollande^[23]^[24]	Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Dominique Strauss-Kahn^[25]^[26]	First Secretary of the Socialist Party Martine Aubry^[27]^[28]	Former Prime Minister of France and Seine-Maritime MP Laurent Fabius^[29]^[30]	President of the SRC Group in the National Assembly and Loire-Atlantique MP Jean-Marc Ayrault^[31]^[32]
Member of the European Parliament from France Benoît Hamon	Member of the European Parliament from France Harlem Desir	President of the General Council of Saône-et-Loire and Saône-et-Loire MP Arnaud Montebourg^[33]^[34]	Mayor of Lyon Gérard Collomb	Former president of SOS Racisme Malek Boutih

[edit] Declined

Mayor of Paris Bertrand Delanoë^[35]^[36]

Member of the European Parliament from France Vincent Peillon^[37]^[38]

Essonne MP Julien Dray

[edit] Democratic Movement

[edit] Announced

none at this time

[edit] Potential

President of MoDem and MP François Bayrou^[39]^[40]

[edit] New Anticapitalist Party

[edit] Announced

none at this time

[edit] Potential

Olivier Besancenot

[edit] Declined

New Anticapitalist Party spokesperson and de-facto leader Olivier Besancenot

Besancenot has said he is not interested in running, though he is the face of his party, many say he will likely run.

[edit] National Front

[edit] Announced

none at this time

[edit] Potential

MEP Marine Le Pen^[41]^[42]

MEP Bruno Gollnisch^[43]

[edit] Declined

President of FN and MEP Jean-Marie Le Pen^[44]^[45]

The historical Leader of the National Front Jean-Marie Le Pen and five-time presidential candidate (1974, 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007) has declined to run for President in 2012. In hypothetical run-off between Martine Aubry and Nicolas Sarkozy, Le Pen has indicated his preference for Martine Aubry^[46]^[47].

[edit] The Greens

[edit] Declined

MEP Daniel Cohn-Bendit^[48].

[edit] French Communist Party

[edit] Openly Interested

Nord MP Alain Bocquet^[49]

[edit] Left Party

[edit] Openly Interested

MEP Jean-Luc Mélenchon^[50]

[edit] Opinion Polling

[edit] 2007 candidates

These polls are not opinion polls for 2012 matchups, but hypothetical re-runs of the 2007 election.

Candidate		Results 2007	Ifop 2/11/07^[51]	CSA 26/02/08^[52]	Ifop 26/04/09^[53]	OpinionWay 1/05/09^[54]	OpinionWay 19/06/09^[55]
	Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent)	31.18%	35%	32%	28%	30%	33%
	Ségolène Royal	25.87%	22%	21%	20%	21%	21%
	François Bayrou	18.57%	17%	19%	19%	20%	13%
	Jean-Marie Le Pen	10.44%	9%	9%	8%	7%	9%
	Olivier Besancenot	4.08%	7%	7%	8%	9%	8%
	7 Other Candidates	9.87%	10%	12%	17%	13%	16%

[edit] Hypothetical candidates

Candidate		Ifop 29/10/09^[56]
	Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent)	28%
	Martine Aubry	20%
	François Bayrou	14%
	Marine Le Pen	11%
	Olivier Besancenot	9%
	Dominique de Villepin	8%
	Cécile Duflot	5%
	Marie-George Buffet	3%
	Nathalie Arthaud	1%
	Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	1%

[edit] Runoff polls

	CSA 26/02/08^[57]		Candidate
Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent)	49%	51%	Dominique Strauss-Kahn
Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent)	51%	49%	François Bayrou
Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent)	53%	47%	Martine Aubry
Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent)	53%	47%	Bertrand Delanoë
Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent)	55%	45%	Ségolène Royal
Nicolas Sarkozy (incumbent)	57%	43%	François Hollande

[edit] References

[0] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/07/08/01002-20090708ARTFIG00007-sarkozy-se-voit-a-l-elysee-pour-encore-sept-ans-et-demi-.php

[1] ttp://www.professionpolitique.info/article/08-07-09/sarkozy-un-pas-vers-2012

[2] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2008/05/02/01011-20080502FILWWW00306-sarkozy-candidat-en-contre.php

[3] ttp://www.rue89.com/2009/04/25/villepin-souhaite-fort-etre-candidat-en-2012

[4] ttp://www.presidentielle2012.net/candidat/dominique-de-villepin

[5] ttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hwTVN-l_oYX0OCDLA1ZJzuvx0saA

[6] ttp://www.leprogres.fr/fr/france-monde/article/1154195,192/Presidentielle-2012-et-maintenant-Juppe.html

[7] ttp://www.tuxboard.com/?xavier-bertrand-president-2012-ou-2017

[8] ttp://www.presidentielle2012.net/candidat/xavier-bertrand

[9] ttp://www.presidentielle2012.net/candidat/jean-francois-cope

[10] ttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ileA0SNTFGzokQookCdBI4ktAf1g

[11] ttp://www.liberation.fr/politiques/0101563511-le-president-cope-vise-2017

[12] ttp://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2008-11-27/regardez-royal-2012-c-est-demain-a-tres-bientot/917/0/294695

[13] ttp://tf1.lci.fr/infos/france/politique/0,,4171692,00-pour-segolene-royal-2012-c-est-demain-.html

[14] ttp://www.linternaute.com/video/171846/pierre-moscovici-candidat-en-2012/

[15] ttp://www.lematin.ch/flash-info/monde/moscovici-primaires-ouvertes-2012-necessite-vitale-ps

[16] ttp://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/actualites/politique/20090615.OBS0658/moscovici_pourrait_etre_candidat_a_des_primaires_ps.html

[17] ttp://www.liberation.fr/politiques/0101574218-primaires-au-ps-apres-valls-moscovici-sort-presque-du-bois

[18] ttp://www.exprimeo.fr/article/4597/manuel-valls-ouvre-la-competition-pour-2012.htm

[19] ttp://www.lepost.fr/article/2009/03/09/1450630_manuel-valls-n-exclut-pas-d-etre-candidat-aux-presidentielles-de-2012.html

[20] ttp://www.lesechos.fr/info/france/4875284-ps-valls-candidat-aux-primaires-pour-la-presidentielle-de-2012.htm

[21] ttp://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ilxf9PkVSNUIiIbWrKRsfRiwWlpg

[22] ttp://www.lepost.fr/article/2009/04/16/1498410_le-come-back-de-francois-hollande.html

[23] ttp://www.mediapart.fr/journal/france/170409/francois-hollande-s-echauffe-pour-2012

[24] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2007/12/21/01002-20071221ARTFIG00323-dsk-laisse-la-porte-ouverte-pour-.php

[25] ttp://www.lepost.fr/article/2009/03/26/1471866_strauss-kahn-recours-du-ps-en-2012-le-web-y-pense-deja.html

[26] ttp://www.lepost.fr/article/2009/03/26/1471572_martine-aubry-candidate-declaree-pour-2012.html

[27] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/04/11/01002-20090411ARTFIG00006-europeennes-un-test-electoral-perilleux-pour-aubry-.php

[28] ttp://tf1.lci.fr/infos/france/politique/0,,3833940,00-fabius-pret-envisager-candidature-2012-.html

[29] ttp://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/actualites/politique/20080210.OBS9790/laurent_fabius_nexclut_pas_de_se_presenter_a_la_preside.html

[30] ttp://www.lapresidentielle.info/candidats/?candidat=jean-marc-ayrault

[31] ttp://www.politique.net/2009012103-portrait-jean-marc-ayrault.htm

[32] ttp://www.europe1.fr/Info/Actualite-France/Politique/Montebourg-propose-des-primaires-ouvertes-pour-2012/(gid)/213386

[33] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2007/12/19/01002-20071219ARTFIG00016-montebourg-change-de-methode.php

[34] ttp://www.lepost.fr/tag/betrand-delanoe-2012/

[35] ttp://www.exprimeo.fr/article/1541/bertrand-delanoe-se-lance-pour-la-presidentielle-2012.htm

[36] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/le-talk/2008/11/28/01021-20081128ARTFIG00511-peillon-des-candidats-pour-caches-derriere-aubry-.php

[37] ttp://www.politique.net/2009030203-portrait-vincent-peillon.htm

[38] ttp://www.metrofrance.com/infos/bayrou-les-europeennes-en-attendant-2012/midw!BIuAttmW4y316/

[39] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/03/30/01002-20090330ARTFIG00312-francois-bayrou-pense-plus-que-jamais-a-2012-.php

[40] ttp://www.presidentielle2012.net/candidat/marine-le-pen

[41] ttp://tf1.lci.fr/infos/france/politique/0,,3611102,00-marine-pen-envisage-presenter-2012-.html

[42] ttp://www.presidentielle2012.net/candidat/bruno-gollnisch

[43] ttp://www.presidentielle2012.net/jean-marie-le-pen-presentera-pas-a-la-presidentielle-2012-270

[44] ttp://www.lejdd.fr/cmc/politique/200837/le-pen-a-la-retraite-bientot_148372.html

[45] ttp://tf1.lci.fr/infos/france/politique/0,,4257269,00-en-2012-le-pen-pencherait-pour-aubry-.html

[46] ttp://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2009-02-15/en-2012-le-pen-vote-aubry-plutot-que-sarkozy/917/0/317488

[47] Cécile Amar, Cohn-Bendit : "Je ne serai pas candidat en 2012", Le Journal du dimanche, 23 august 2009.

[48] S.C., « L’idée communiste a besoin d’un parti », L'Humanité, 10 september 2009.

[49] S.C., « L’idée communiste a besoin d’un parti », L'Humanité, 10 september 2009.

[50] ttp://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/elections_6moisapres.pdf

[51] ttp://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2008/opi20080226-intentions-de-vote-a-l-election-presidentielle.htm

[52] ttp://www.ifop.com/europe/docs/2007deuxansapres.pdf

[53] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/politoscope-2mai.pdf

[54] ttp://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/OpinionWay19juin.pdf

[55] ttp://www.ifop.fr/media/poll/979-1-study_file.pdf

[56] ttp://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2009/opi20091105-rapports-de-force-au-second-tour-de-l-election-presidentielle.pdf

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Contents

[edit] Union for a Popular Movement

[edit] Openly Interested

[edit] Hypothetical candidates

[edit] Socialist Party

[edit] Openly Interested

[edit] Potential

[edit] Declined

[edit] Democratic Movement

[edit] Announced

[edit] Potential

[edit] New Anticapitalist Party

[edit] Announced

[edit] Potential

[edit] Declined

[edit] National Front

[edit] Announced

[edit] Potential

[edit] Declined

[edit] The Greens

[edit] Declined

[edit] French Communist Party

[edit] Openly Interested

[edit] Left Party

[edit] Openly Interested

[edit] Opinion Polling

[edit] 2007 candidates

[edit] Hypothetical candidates

[edit] Runoff polls

[edit] References