The 2020s will begin on January 1, 2020 and will end on December 31, 2029. By the end of the decade, world population is projected to surpass 8 billion people.[1] [edit] Notable predictions and known events - The interaction of the three main decadal solar cycles suggests an upcoming reduction in solar activity, with a low-energy period centered around 2020.[2] As suggested by John Maddox of Nature, this might mitigate the global warming (at least temporarily) in the 2010s and 2020s.[3]
- Assuming that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation runs through an 70-year quasi-cycle (after peaks in ≈1880 and ≈1950), its current warm phase is likely to peak during this decade.[4][5]
- Each NASA (USA), ESA (Europe),[6] CNSA (China),[7] FKA (Russia),[8] and ISRO (India)[9] plan to send a manned mission to the Moon in this decade.
- According to a report released by the National Intelligence Council, the United States will experience the relative decline of its economic and military power, driven both by the rise of new behemoths such as China and India and domestic constraints on its global leadership.[10]
- Voyager 2 is expected to stop transmitting back to Earth in the 2020s.[11]
- Futurist Ray Kurzweil puts 2029 as the year most likely for a breakthrough in Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). He expects that around this time, computers will reach human intelligence levels, and shortly thereafter surpass the capabilities of the human brain.[12]
- Intel predicts the performance of supercomputers to reach zettaflops scale by 2029.[13]
[edit] References - ^ see various projections and sources at World population estimates
- ^ Berger, Wolfgang H.; et al. (2002). "A Case for Climate Cycles: Orbit, Sun and Moon". Climate development and history of the North Atlantic realm. Berlin: Springer. pp. 101–123. ISBN 3540432019.
- ^ Maddox, John (1995). "Natural antidote to global warming?". Nature 377 (6546): 193. doi:10.1038/377193a0.
- ^ Curry, Judith A. (2008), "Potential Increased Hurricane Activity in a Greenhouse Warmed World", in MacCracken, Michael C.; Moore, Frances; Topping, John C., Sudden and disruptive climate change, London: Earthscan, pp. 29–38, ISBN 1844074781, "Assuming that the AMO continues with a 70-year periodicity, the peak of the next cycle would be expected in 2020 (70 years after the previous 1950 peak)."
- ^ Enfield, David B.; Cid-Serrano, Luis (2009). "Secular and multidecadal warmings in the North Atlantic and their relationships with major hurricane activity". International Journal of Climatology Forthcoming. doi:10.1002/joc.1881.
- ^ Kluger, Jeffrey (November 13, 2008), "40 Years Later, It's Moon Race 2.0", Time, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1858878,00.html
- ^ "China considering manned lunar landing in 2025-2030", Xinhua, May 24, 2009, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-05/24/content_11425131.htm
- ^ Page, Lewis (October 31, 2007), "Russia plans 2025 Moonbase, 2035 Mars shot", The Register, http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/08/31/russians_on_moon_by_2025/
- ^ Singh, Harmeet Shah (July 17, 2009), "India's space odyssey: Moon dreams move east", CNN, http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/07/15/india.space/
- ^ Finn, Peter; Pincus, Walter (2008-11-21). "Report Sees Nuclear Arms, Scarce Resources as Seeds of Global Instability". Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/21/AR2008112100091.html.
- ^ "Voyager – Spacecraft – Spacecraft Lifetime". NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. 2003-01-14. http://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/spacecraft/spacecraftlife.html. Retrieved 2007-11-04.
- ^ Briggs, Helen (2008-02-16). "Machines 'to match man by 2029'". BBC News. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7248875.stm.
- ^ "IDF: Intel says Moore's Law holds until 2029". Heise Online. 2008-04-04. http://www.heise.de/english/newsticker/news/106017.
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