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Incline Club [2002 Season Newsletter Index] inclineclub.com | NEL - Season's Greetings 2002 nel.edu | Hurricane Season medical needs ocalaregional.com |
The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season was an average Atlantic hurricane season, officially starting on June 1, 2002 and ending on November 30, dates which conventionally limit the period of each year when tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean tend to form. The season produced 14 tropical cyclones, of which 12 developed into named storms; four cyclones attained hurricane status, of which two reached major hurricane status. The season began on July 14, over a month past the official start, but tied with the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season with a record eight storms forming in the month of September. It ended early however, with no tropical storms forming after September 21—a rare occurrence caused partly by El Niño conditions. The most intense hurricane of the season was Hurricane Isidore with a minimum central pressure of 934 mbar, although Hurricane Lili attained higher winds and peaked at Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The season was less destructive than average, causing an estimated $2.6 billion (2002 USD; $3.11 billion 2008 USD) in property damage and 23 fatalities, mostly due to Isidore and Lili. In September, Hurricane Gustav moved ashore on Nova Scotia as it was transitioning into an extratropical cyclone, lashing the region with high winds for several days. Isidore struck the Yucatan Peninsula and later the United States, causing about $970 million (2002 USD) in damage, and killing a total of seven. Several other storms directly affected land during August and September, including the longest lived of the season, Hurricane Kyle. In early October, Hurricane Lili made landfall in Louisiana, where it caused $860 million (2002 USD) in damage and 15 deaths.
[edit] Seasonal forecasts
Noted hurricane expert William M. Gray and his associates at Colorado State University issue forecasts of hurricane activity each year, separately from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Gray's team determined the average number of storms per season between 1950 and 2000 to be 9.6 tropical storms, 5.9 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes (storms exceeding Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 9 to 12 named storms, of which 5 to 7 reach hurricane strength and 1 to 3 become major hurricanes.[1][2] [edit] Pre-season forecastsOn December 7, 2001, Gray's team issued its first extended-range forecast for the 2002 season, predicting above-average activity (13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and about 2 of Category 3 or higher). It listed an 86 percent chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland. This included a 58 percent chance of at least one major hurricane strike on the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and a 43 percent chance of at least one such strike on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward. The potential for major hurricane activity in the Caribbean was forecast to be above average.[1] On April 5 a new forecast was issued, calling for 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes. The decrease in the forecast was attributed to the further intensification of El Niño conditions. The estimated potential for at least one major hurricane to affect the U.S. was decreased to 75 percent; the East Coast potential decreased slightly to 57 percent, and from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas, the probability remained the same.[3] [edit] Mid-season forecastsOn August 7, 2002, Gray's team lowered its season estimate to 9 named storms, with 4 becoming hurricanes and 1 becoming major hurricanes, noting that conditions had become less favorable for storms than they had been earlier in the year. The sea-level pressure and trade wind strength in the tropical Atlantic were reported to be above normal, while sea surface temperature anomalies were on a decreasing trend.[5] On August 8, 2002, NOAA revised its season estimate to 7–10 named storms, with 4–6 becoming hurricanes and 1–3 becoming major hurricanes. The reduction was attributed to less favorable environmental conditions and building El Niño conditions.[6] [edit] StormsMain article: List of storms in the 2002 Atlantic hurricane season
[edit] July and August The first tropical cyclone of the season, Tropical Storm Arthur, is believed to have originated from a decaying cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. By July 9, a weak low-level circulation was first detected, in association with a broad low pressure area. The system tracked slowly north-northwestward, and on July 14 it was designated a tropical depression; it became a tropical storm the next day. Arthur attained peak winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) on July 16, before becoming extratropical on July 17.[7] On August 4, a tropical depression developed from a trough of low pressure. Quickly organizing, it was named Tropical Storm Bertha just hours after forming. Initially tracking northwestward, it made landfall near Boothville, Louisiana and weakened back into a tropical depression. The depression turned southwestward and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico, though it failed to strengthen before making a final landfall in Texas.[8] The same trough that spawned Tropical Storm Bertha sparked a tropical depression off the coast of South Carolina on August 5. The next day, a Hurricane Hunters flight indicated that the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal. After peaking with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h), Cristobal meandered across the western Atlantic and was absorbed by a cold front on August 8.[9] A tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on August 27, and tracked westward across the Atlantic. Ship reports revealed that the wave was accompanied by an area of low pressure. The low organized, and became a tropical depression to the southwest of the Cape Verde on August 29. Quickly intensifying, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Dolly later that day, and tracked west-northwest for a couple days. Convection decreased on September 3, and on September 4 it degenerated into a remnant low.[10] [edit] September and October.jpg) Tropical Storm Edouard formed on September 1 from an area of convection in association with a cold front to the east of Florida. Despite moderate to strong levels of wind shear, the storm attained tropical storm status the next day and reached a peak intensity of 65 mph (90 km/h) on September 3, though quickly weakened as it tracked westward. Edouard made landfall on northeastern Florida on September 5, and after crossing the state it dissipated on September 6.[11] In early September, a low pressure center developed along a trough of low pressure, and on September 5, the system had gained sufficient organization to be a tropical depression, to the southeast of Galveston. The depression drifted south-southwest while strengthening into Tropical Storm Fay, reaching its peak strength of 60 miles per hour (97 km/h) on the morning of September 6. The system then abruptly turned to the west-northwest, and remained steady in strength and course until landfall the next day, near Matagorda.[12] Tropical Depression Seven formed from a tropical wave on September 7. It had a maximum wind speed of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 1013 mbar. The depression headed roughly west, and was torn apart by vertical shear on September 8 without affecting land.[13] An area of unsettled weather developed between the Bahamas and Bermuda on September 6, and over the next few days convection increased in intensity and coverage. On September 8, the system gained sufficient organization to be declared a subtropical depression off the Southeast United States coast; later that day, the system was named Subtropical Storm Gustav. After attaining tropical characteristics on September 10, Gustav passed slightly to the east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a tropical storm before moving northeastward and making two landfalls in Atlantic Canada as a Category 1 hurricane in September 12.[14][15]  In early September, a tropical wave merged with a trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and spawned a low pressure system. Convection steadily deepened on September 11 east of the upper level low and the surface low; it was classified as Tropical Depression Nine the next day. The disorganized storm moved westward, then northward, where it strengthened into Tropical Storm Hanna later that day. After reaching a peak with winds of 55 mph (90 km/h), it made two landfalls on the Gulf Coast.[16] On September 9, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa, and by September 14 it was classified as a tropical depression. The next day the storm was located just south of Jamaica, and it developed into Tropical Storm Isidore. On September 19, it intensified into a hurricane, and Isidore made landfall in western Cuba as a Category 1 storm. Just before landfall near Puerto Telchac on September 22, Isidore reached its peak intensity, with wind speeds of 125 miles per hour (201 km/h), making it a strong Category 3 storm. After returning to the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm, Isidore's final landfall was near Grand Isle, Louisiana on September 26, where the storm weakened to a depression.[17] Tropical Storm Josephine formed on September 17 from a non-tropical low pressure system. Though convection was intermittent due to unfavorable conditions over the north Atlantic Ocean, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Josephine September 18. The storm moved to the northeast in the open ocean until September 19, when it lost its tropical characteristics and was absorbed by a larger low.[18] A non-tropical low formed into Subtropical Depression Twelve, well east-southeast of Bermuda on September 20. It became Subtropical Storm Kyle the next day, and Tropical Storm Kyle on September 22. Kyle drifted slowly westward, slowly strengthening, and reached hurricane strength on September 25; it weakened back into a tropical storm on September 28. The cyclone's strength continued to fluctuate between tropical depression and tropical storm several times. Its movement was also extremely irregular, as it shifted sharply north and south along its generally westward path. On October 11, Kyle reached land and made its first landfall near McClellanville, South Carolina. While skirting the coastline of the Carolinas, it moved back over water, and made a second landfall near Long Beach, North Carolina later the same day. Kyle continued out to sea where it merged with a cold front on October 12.[19]  On September 16, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa and across the Atlantic. It developed a low level cloud circulation midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles on September 20. The next day, the system had become sufficiently organized to classify the system as a tropical depression about 900 nautical miles (1,700 km) east of the Windward Islands. On September 30 Lili became a hurricane while passing over the Cayman Islands. The storm attained Category 5 status in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall on the Louisiana coast on October 2. The next day, it was absorbed by an extra tropical low near the Tennessee – Arkansas border.[20] Tropical Depression 14 formed from a tropical wave on October 14. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h), and a minimum pressure of 1002 mbar. Vertical shear from the northeast prevented development, and after making landfall in southern Cuba on October 16, it was absorbed by a cold front.[21] [edit] Impact No cyclones in the season had a significant impact on South America or Central America. However, Hurricane Isidore made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of southern Mexico as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Isidore was one of the most significant storms of the season, leaving $640 million (2002 USD) in damage in the country.[22] Despite dropping over 30 inches (760 mm) of rainfall among other effects,[23] only two indirect deaths were reported there.[24] Seven tropical cyclones moved ashore on the United States, of which six were at tropical storm status or less at the time of landfall.[25] The first, Tropical Storm Bertha, made landfall along the Gulf Coast, killing only one person.[26][27] Later, Tropical Storm Edouard tracked across south Florida, dropping 7.64 inches (194 mm) in DeSoto County,[28] though no reported damages. Just days after, Tropical Storm Fay made landfall in Texas. The storm caused moderate flooding in some areas due to high rainfall amounts, which left about 400 homes with some form of damage. In total, 400 houses sustained damage from flooding.[29] Making landfall in southern Louisiana and progressing northward into Alabama and Georgia, Tropical Storm Hanna caused $20 million (2002 USD) in damage and indirectly killed three people through rip currents generated by the storm.[16] As a tropical storm, Hurricane Isidore produced a maximum of 15.97 inches (406 mm) of rainfall in the United States at Metarie, Louisiana.[23] The rainfall was responsible for flooding that caused moderate crop damage, with a total of $330 million in damage (2002 USD).[30]  In early October, Hurricane Kyle made two landfalls in the Carolinas as a tropical storm. Overall damage from Kyle amounted to about $5 million (2002 USD).[19] The final and most significant storm to directly affect the country was Hurricane Lili, which moved ashore in Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane. In the state, wind gusts reaching 120 mph (190 km/h), coupled with over 6 inches (150 mm) of rainfall and a storm surge of 12 feet (3.7 m) caused over $860 million (2002 USD) in damage. A total of 237,000 people lost power, and oil rigs offshore were shut down for up to a week.[31] In Canada, Hurricane Gustav brought heavy rain, storm and hurricane force winds, and storm surges to areas of Atlantic Canada for several days.[14] and a wind gust of 75 mph (122 km/h) was reported on Sable Island. Localized flooding was reported in areas of Prince Edward Island, and 4,000 people in Halifax, Nova Scotia and Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island were left without power.[32] As a result of Tropical Storm Arthur in the beginning of the season, one person drowned in the Conne River.[33] [edit] Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Ranking
The table on the right shows the ACE for each storm in the season. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed for, so storms that lasted a long time (e.g. Isidore and Lili) have higher ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots (39 mph, 63 km/h) or tropical storm strength. The highest ever ACE estimated for a single storm in the Atlantic is 73.6, for Hurricane San Ciriaco in the 1899 Atlantic hurricane season. This single storm had an ACE higher than many whole Atlantic storm seasons. Other Atlantic storms with high ACEs include Hurricane Ivan in the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season, with an ACE of 70.4, and Hurricane Donna in the 1960 Atlantic hurricane season, with an ACE of 64.6.[25] The 2002 season was not very active in terms of ACE, with no storms reaching a value of more than 20 104 kt2. This was because many of the storms in the season such as Bertha, Cristobal, Edouard, Fay, Hanna, and Josephine were very short lived, and never reached hurricane status.[nb 1] [edit] Storm namesSee also: List of retired Atlantic hurricane names
These names were used for storms that formed in the north Atlantic in 2002. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2008 season. This is the same list used for the 1996 Atlantic hurricane season except for Cristobal, Fay, and Hanna, which replaced Cesar, Fran, and Hortense. The names Cristobal, Fay, and Hanna were used for the first time.[34] Names that were not used are marked in gray. [edit] RetirementThe World Meteorological Organization retired two names in the spring of 2003; Isidore and Lili. They were replaced in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season by Ike and Laura.[34] [edit] See also
[edit] Notes
[edit] References
[edit] External links
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